Blocked Middle Seats and Local Tourism: What Will Travel Look Like When The Rebound Comes?

A rebound will come some day. But I think it will take quite a long time before travel is back to normal.

Given what’s been happening with social or physical distancing, we’re not going to flick a switch on July 1 (or whenever) and go back to crowded airports and jam-packed airplanes. Some things will simply have to change.

Writing in the Globe and Mail recently, esteemed urbanist Richard Florida talked about new ways being needed to run airport check-in counters, baggage carousels and airlines themselves.

Further to that, Delta Airlines today issued a statement saying that, starting April 13 through May 31, they will be blocking middle seats in Main Cabin, Delta Comfort+ and Delta Premium Select across all flights. When booking future seat selection via the Fly Delta App or online, middle seats will be shown as unavailable.

They also are reducing the number of customers on each flight.

I’m not an airline expert, but I think some of those moves will be in place for some time. Nobody is going to want to book a seat and be four or five inches (or less) from another passenger, at least not from a stranger.

I suspect middle seats will be blocked out by many airlines. But I also wonder how many rows can be filled on a plane. Will people book a seat if there’s someone they don’t know a foot or two behind them? I don’t know.

It’s going to be very tough for airlines, who desperately need passengers and their cash. They might be back in business in a couple months, but I can’t see them returning to full flights until there’s a vaccine in place. Even then, I suspect some folks will be nervous about flying.

As Florida pointed out, there also are issues about crowding at check-in areas, waiting lounges and other areas of airports. And the same thing goes for trains and buses.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Wednesday said the economic recovery will have to take place in a “measured, graduated way” so we can avoid COVID-19 spikes. Some countries already are looking at next steps, and Canada will examine what’s being done around the world as it considers next steps, he said.

I wrote last month about Canadian destinations, making the point that I suspect we (and others around the world) are likely to want to stay closer to home than we normally might once travel restrictions are lifted. I suspect Canadians will want to explore quiet areas with few tourists around, although I’m sure a lot of city folks will take staycations and explore Toronto, as well.

Smaller Ontario cities such as Port Dover could do well once travel restrictions are lifted. JIM BYERS PHOTO

Frederic Dimanche is Director of the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Toronto’s Ryerson University. In a message sent via Twitter, Dimanche said he agrees with my go-slow assessment.

“There will be several converging attitudes: 1. Operators will want to reassure and do what Delta does. 2. Customers will be ready to buy safety (i.e.; pay more than what they paid for before) and 3. Governments may impose such procedures in public spaces from restaurants to hotels, airports, and transportation.

“Distancing is likely to stay for a long time, and that will affect load factors, carrying capacity and revenue formulas for operators,” Dimanche said, and that means a slow recovery.

“Fewer people will travel because of the financial and security constraints, so that will change consumer behaviour and demand for hospitality and travel products. Domestic tourism should rise (a good thing for Canada which always had a deficit there) and that may help compensate for lower international demand,” he said.

“A weekend getaway in Kingston or Montreal will feel like a real escape, but operators will need to increase the value provided. People will expect more in cleanliness, safety, and overall experience.”

Interesting times, for sure.

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