Several stories I’ve read and a webinar I listened to today have me thinking more about what the future of travel will look like.
I wish I could be more encouraging, but I’m finding a lot of mixed messages. I do think people will have a pent-up desire to get out there and explore, but I also realize all of us who do so will find a world that’s quite different from the one we’re used to. And I think companies – airlines, hotels, car rental companies and most definitely the cruise industry – will have to make major adjustments.
In no particular order, here are some thoughts/comments/quotes I’ve read or heard in the past few days.
MARRIOTT CLEANLINESS/SAFETY PROGRAM
Marriott announced today that it will be rolling out a multi-pronged platform to elevate its cleanliness standards and hospitality norms and behaviors to meet the new health and safety challenges presented by the current pandemic environment. Among the measures are the addition of disinfecting wipes in all rooms and posting social distancing signs in hotel public spaces. The company said it also is working with supply chain partners to make masks and gloves available to associates. Officials said Marriott also is installing more hand sanitizing stations at the entrances to its hotels, near the front desk, elevator banks and fitness and meeting spaces.
Here’s a link to the story I did on this for TravelPulse Canada today.
The timing of this is interesting because on Monday I received a press release from Niagara University in upstate New York that talked about hotel cleanliness. Zongqing Zhou, PhD, professor at the College of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the school, said hotels need to keep several things in mind if they’re to attract clients in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
1. Hire a “CSO”: Chief Safety Officer. This CSO must be an expert in public health and public security.
2. Make public safety and security the centerpiece of management, marketing and promotion.
3. Provide assurances that all customers will be well-protected within its properties or destinations, such as providing free or next to free masks, sanitation equipment, and local hospital connections if needed.
4. Create innovative programs and events focusing on social distancing, such as “controlled crowd traveling”, private group traveling, family traveling, limited group size tours, and special, small group dining experiences.
5. Add “crisis forbearance” to the loyalty program. Loyal program customers are automatically protected from any losses due to a crisis like COVID-19. For example, any booked flight, hotel, tour, meal, or cruise will be automatically refunded or extended for at least another year based on customers’ preferences.
“COVID-19 is certainly going to be a game changer for the travel and tourism industry,” says Dr. Zhou. “Those who can learn from this experience and implement changes in the future will be the winners; those who keep doing the same old business will be left in the dust.”
TRAVELLER SURVEYS
The New York Times yesterday had a story about business travel that I found astonishing. Noting that biz travel has pretty much ground to a halt, the story said that a poll this month of 106 corporate travel managers who work for BCD Travel clients found similar pessimism about any quick return, with a little over 40 percent saying they expected business travel to return to former levels this year. Another 10 percent predicted that it would not fully return until at least 2022, while 3 percent said it would never return.
This survey must have been taken on April Fools’ Day, or at least early in the month. I can’t imagine that ANYONE today would think business travel will return to former levels this year. The world’s population will continue to grow, so I suppose we will eventually get back to 2019 business travel levels. But I bet it takes a good five to six years, at least.
Virtual travel may be the most popular way to experience the world for a while longer.
A report from Dollar Flight Club finds that 40% of U.S. travellers intend to take a trip between June and December. They also looked at air fares and predict a 35% drop in air fares through 2021 and then sharply increase 27% on average (above 2019 levels) through 2025 as demand rebounds.
A study released earlier today (April 21) finds that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. travel industry continues to be very negative near term. According to a Longwoods International tracking study of American travelers and the coronavirus pandemic, 82% of them are changing their travel plans for the next six months because of coronavirus, about the same percentage reported the last three weeks. When asked how these travelers will change their plans because of the pandemic, 47% said they would cancel some trips, up from 28% five weeks ago, and 47% said they will reduce travel in the next six months, up from 36% five weeks ago. Changing trips from international to domestic and from air travel to auto travel continue to occur but were less frequent than in previous weeks.
Signaling some potential improvement in future travel outlook, the percentage of American travelers planning trips in the next six months rose slightly for the second week in a row, from 65% two weeks ago to 72% at the time of this survey. However, this is still far below the 87% planning trips five weeks ago.
I listened in on a Resonance Consulting webinar today, and officials were talking about a survey done by the U.S. Travel Association and a consulting company called MMGY. The latest figures show four in 10 Americans are still likely to take a plane trip in the next few months, but one in three said they’re more likely to take trips closer to home now than they were prior to the pandemic.
Frederic Dimanche, who’s at the Ted Rogers School of Tourism and Hospitality Management at Ryerson University in Toronto, put something up on Twitter today that found Chinese consumers are easing into the travel market quite slowly, with demand for flights stuck at around 45% of pre-coronavirus levels. That’s probably not surprising, and it hasn’t been that long since travel restrictions were lifted, but it does show that the recovery will be long and will take place in fits and starts, not as a flood of happy travellers stampeding to Pearson Airport or YVR in Vancouver.
TRAVEL + LEISURE STORY
Dr. Nabarun Dasgupta, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina, says the pandemic will force consumers to factor health concerns into their travel choices even more than before. He recommends checking verified apps like Outbreaks Near Me to take proper precautions before traveling to a new destination.
“I caution people against heading into active hot zones, even if you’re immune, because you don’t know what kind of lockdown you might be subject to if cases suddenly increase upon your return,” he said. “Many countries, and even some U.S. states, now have mandatory requirements for visitors to isolate for two weeks. This should be factored into travel planning.” Dr. Dasgupta also says, “If a coronavirus vaccine becomes available, depending on the safety profile, it would be worth considering even if you’re not venturing far from home.”
He also cautions about people visiting small destinations like Rapa Nui (Easter Island), as they might not be equipped to handle a virus that a visitor could unwittingly bring along. Interesting point.
At least one health expert says travellers need to be wary of visiting small destinations like Rapa Nui that perhaps can’t handle a COVID-19 infection. JIM BYERS PHOTO
The Travel + Leisure story also talked about airlines blocking middle seats (which may not be enough) and how hotels might have an advantage in that tourists could feel they’re likely to be more sanitary than someone’s Air BnB offering.
I haven’t seen the actual evidence to support this, but the T + L story also suggests the cruise industry might do better than I would expect. Here’s an excerpt from their story.
“Paul Hackwell is a partner at TPG Capital and leads the firm’s consumer investment practice. He says the cruise industry has faced challenges in the past, but always rebounds thanks to a loyal customer base and the value that cruise vacations provide travelers. “This is an industry where things happen — recession, wars, hurricanes, the Costa Concordia disaster — but cruises have always bounced back. It typically takes about a year, but we are going to be in a recession, so I think this will be a multiyear bounce back.”
Though many sailings have been canceled for 2020, a lot of customers simply seem to be rebooking for 2021 and beyond at current fares. CruiseCompete.com has even logged a bump in new bookings for next year. Rudi Schreiner, the founder of AmaWaterways, says, “A lot of the people who are canceling cruises for 2020 are rebooking for 2021, so next year is already looking very good, and we just put our 2022 deployment together.”
The already stringent hygienic standards aboard cruise ships will become even more rigorous and visible. “Cruise lines will need to make the public very aware of procedures taken to contain onboard illness,” said Andrew Coggins, Jr., professor of management at Pace University’s Lubin School of Business. “They may also be required to expand their onboard medical capabilities and facilities. This would mean taking revenue space for medical space, but if pandemics become a way of life, that may increase the cruise industry’s resiliency.
Finally, Travel + Leisure talked about how travel agents will make a comeback.
Travel agents have become more niche in recent years, as the majority of consumers simply book travel themselves online. These days, many agents focus their practice on business and luxury accounts. Given the fast-changing nature of the crisis and the difficulties some travelers encountered getting home, however, more people will likely turn to agents for trip-planning purposes, simply to have an advocate in their corner if and when things go wrong.
Here’s a link to the full T + L story.
