We’re only six weeks from summer here in the Northern Hemisphere, and that has a lot of people feeling better about things. If you’re in the travel and tourism business, there are some pretty good reasons for optimism as well. I’ll look at a new poll in my FUTURE OF TRAVEL blog today, as well as optimistic TSA numbers and comments from airline officials. There’s also some news from Jasper National Park in Alberta and some not-so-hopeful comments out of France.
THERE’S A GOOD MOON ON THE RISE
First up, the good news for a Sunday. A report on novacancynews.com says new research issued the other day by the Global Business Travel Association shows signs of recovery.
“The study found that most companies are planning a recovery for 2020 with one in three planning for a recovery in three months or less,” the website stated.
To understand the coronavirus’s effects on business travel, GBTA conducted its sixth poll among membership on April 17-22, 2020. GBTA received responses from almost 1,600 member companies throughout the world.
“The global business travel industry remains at a standstill, but we are finally beginning to see some light at the end of this very long tunnel,” said GBTA Chief Executive Officer Scott Solombrino. “GBTA members are planning their post-coronavirus recovery plans and most expect to be operational in 2020. This is a positive sign. The majority of GBTA member companies expect domestic business travel to resume in the next 2-3 months and most expect employees will be willing to travel. We have waited a long time for there to be optimism around the pandemic in our industry, and it should continue to grow as we get closer to halting the spread of this disease.”
- One-third (35%) of GBTA members say they plan for their company’s post-coronavirus recovery plan in three months or less, while a quarter (27%) say they plan for a post-recovery in 6-8 months. In addition, only one in ten are planning for recovery in 2021, while one in four (28%) report they do not know.
- Among GBTA members who report their company has canceled at least some domestic business trips, six in ten (62%) say they expect domestic travel to resume in the next 2-3 months. One in five report they expect domestic travel to resume in the next 6-8 months (18%) or are unsure (19%).
There appears to be more faith in Europe than in North America at this point.
- GBTA European members (74%) are more likely than members based in North America (58%) to expect domestic business travel will return in 2-3 months. In addition, members based in North America (21%) are more likely to be unsure when domestic business travel will resume compared to members based in Europe (12%).
- Eight in ten European members expect international business travel will resume in 2-3 months (33%) or 6-8 months (47%). Two-thirds of GBTA members in North America expect international travel to resume in 2-3 months (26%) or 6-8 months (38%).
Here’s the story: http://novacancynews.com/article/the-first-signs-of-optimism-emerge-in-latest-gbta-study/
TSA: FEELING STRONGER EVERY DAY
Forbes reports that the Transportation Security Administration’s count of passenger reached 171,563 on Friday May 1, the highest total since Sunday March 29, when the total was 180,002. The TSA passenger count has been above 110,000 for eleven consecutive days, including Friday, after being below that total for 17 consecutive days April 6 through April 22.
The same story from Forbes also had a good quote from United Airlines.
Pent-up demand for air travel was clear from a comment by United Airlines President and CEO-designate Scott Kirby on the airlines’ earnings call Friday.
“As we look longer term, we see some evidence of pent-up demand,” Kirby said. “For example, searches for 2021 spring break travel on our website are actually higher this year than they were at this time last year. But we don’t expect many of those to turn into real bookings or travel until the virus is sufficiently contained and the rhythms of daily life become routine again.”
Here’s the Forbes story: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2020/05/02/air-travel-pickup-continues-and-united-sees-pent-up-demand-for-2021/#15811bce9b07
JASPER NATIONAL PARK: NOT YET, THANK YOU
Check out the view from the Fairmont Jasper Park Lodge in Alberta. JIM BYERS PHOTO
The mayor of the Municipality of Jasper is urging travellers to stay away from Jasper until at least June 1st, on the same weekend Alberta re-opens its provincial parks.
“Now is still not yet the time to visit Jasper,” said Mayor Richard Ireland. “We don’t want to overwhelm the healthcare professionals if the virus comes in and we become a hot pocket.”
CTV reports that provincial parks in Alberta are re-opening but national parks are not, which means downtown Jasper is mostly deserted, entrances to nearby lakes like are blocked off and besides essential workers, hotels in town are mostly vacant.
Here’s the CTV item: https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/now-is-still-not-yet-the-time-to-visit-jasper-national-parks-in-canada-are-still-closed-as-province-begins-to-reopen-1.4922542
NORTH AMERICAN TOURISM: POISED TO REBOUND STRONG?
Pretty much anyone with a keyboard has been predicting that local travel will be the first thing to rebound as we climb out of this COVID-19 pandemic. I saw a story in the New York Times today that said folks who study cell phone patterns have detected that Americans are already spreading out around the country as the weather improves and coronavirus restrictions are lifted. Here’s another tidbit on the same subject from an airline executive interviewed by businessinsider.com.
“Jude Bricker, the chief executive officer at Sun Country Airlines, is already imaging ways of restructuring his airline’s route network around what he predicts will be pent-up demand for travel to domestic leisure destinations.
‘My expectation is to places like the west coast of Florida, which Minnesotans have gone to [for] generations, Phoenix, Southern California will recover more rapidly than our international leisure business’ Bricker told Business Insider in an interview.
Bricker said he’s not sure how Hawaiians will welcome visitors from areas that have had COVID-19 issues, but he predicts Hawaii will be a strong destination as travel picks up. He also singled out California, Florida, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands for Americans who want to relax on a beach but don’t want to pack a passport or worry too much about medical care.
Here’s the story: https://www.businessinsider.com/sun-country-ceo-believes-hawaii-travel-will-boom-post-pandemic-2020-5
FRANCE: TIME TO WRITE OFF 2020 TOURISM?
The Dordogne Valley of France. JIM BYERS PHOTO
While I’m trying to be optimistic, there are still plenty of trouble spots around the world. Another story I spotted from forbes.com says the French aren’t feeling terribly hopeful about this year.
Many French tourism operators fear France–the most visited country in the world–will be off-bounds for international travelers this year.
“At the end of May, the government will tell us when we can open again,” says Stéphanie Gombert, director of the historic Château de la Treyne in the magnificent Dordogne Valley, a region I got to visit about 10 years ago. “We will open my business in July, perhaps 1-2 rooms at the outset. But I doubt for the whole year we will have any international tourists. Maybe some from Switzerland or Belgium.”
Here’s the Forbes story: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tamarathiessen/2020/05/02/forget-french-travel-this-year-tourism-operators-warn/#28ff11d054bd
THE WAITING IS THE HARDEST PART
The COVID-19 shutdown began in mid-March in Canada. It’s now May 3rd. We’ve seen money provided for companies to pay their employees and money to help people and businesses pay their rent. We’ve seen a major commitment to Canada’s totally bombshelled oil industry. But there’s been nothing aimed specifically at travel and tourism that I’ve seen, and certainly nothing for Canadian airlines, which are practically shut down aside from the odd cargo flight and occasional repatriation trip for stranded citizens.
It’s a tough one, as Air Canada has massive reserves of cash that companies like Transat don’t.
Finance Minister Bill Morneau said nine days ago that he realizes Canadian airlines need help. But here we are in early May and there’s still nothing.
Here’s the latest on the subject from the CBC:
“Behind the scenes, major airlines are pressing the federal government for an aid package to help them survive the pandemic and quickly recover when countries finally lift their travel restrictions.
‘The carriers are burning through cash,’ said Mike McNaney, the president of the National Airlines Council of Canada, which represents Air Canada, Air Transat and WestJet. The industry will not be able to get out of this challenge unless there’s government assistance.'”
Airlines have been tapping into Canada’s wage subsidy program to hire back thousands of laid-off workers, but say they need an infusion of cash, loans and a freeze on taxes and fees to prop up the industry.
A consumer group warns that if a taxpayer bailout is on the way, it should come with strings attached banning airlines from paying executive bonuses and requiring them to reimburse consumers for cancelled flights during the pandemic.
Meanwhile, Berkshire has sold all its stock in U.S. airlines. Yeah, no kidding.
Here’s the CBC story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/airlines-travel-covid-coronavirus-pandemic-1.5552511
