I know. I know. It’s early. We’re still seeing hospitalizations at record levels in parts of Canada and the U.S. But some health experts are beginning to see the light at the end of the Omicron tunnel, and a number of travel industry types say they expect big things in the next couple months.
According to a report on CTV News, Canadian government forecasts show falling COVID-19 infection numbers coming soon for Toronto, Montreal, Winnipeg and Halifax here in Canada. The Toronto Star today carried an Associated Press report that suggested the UK and the US could soon see declines, as Omicron works its way through vast swaths of the population.
“Scientists are seeing signals that COVID-19′s alarming omicron wave may have peaked in Britain and is about to do the same in the U.S., at which point cases may start dropping off dramatically,” AP’s report stated.
So, what does that mean for travel and tourism? We know there’s remarkable pent-up demand from people who’ve felt alone and isolated for two years. But when will they log into Expedia or their favorite hotel website and start booking?
In a story posted on the Belfast Telegraph webiste, the chief executive of Kuoni, a luxury travel company based in Great Britain, said new rules that make it easier to visit the UK could be the beginning of the end of COVID-19 being a barrier to international travel.
“I predict travel will be 90 per cent back to 2019 levels before the end of spring. We’re already seeing increased call volumes and inquiries about trips for the year ahead as confidence builds,” said Derek Jones.
“We’ve already seen an immediate and strong uptick in bookings and we now expect summer 2022 bookings to be normalized,” a spokeswoman for the tour group Tui told the Telegraph.
A study released today by Trip Advisor, in conjunction with Ipsos Mori, reveals more than a third of travelers across the U.S., U.K, Australia, Japan and Singapore say traveling to a destination they have not previously visited is more important now than before. For the U.S. that figure was 41%.
Travelers also said the top three most important factors in future plans were to have new experiences, learn about history and culture and “get immersive” by seeing new places.
Travelers also said the top three most important factors in future plans were to have new experiences, learn about history and culture and “get immersive” by seeing new places.
Tripadvisor site behavioral data taken from December also reveals average spend per trip for 2022 is likely to exceed that of 2019, although it varies by country. The company says American travelers are likely to spend 29% more on their average trip while the average booking rate for Australian travelers is likely to be up 19% this year versus 2019. On the other hand, Japanese, British and Italian travelers are all expecting to spend less in 2022 than they did pre-pandemic.
Travel in 2022 will be even busier than before the pandemic, Brandon Berkson, the founder of the New York-based travel company Hotels Above Par.
According to a report at CNBC.com, Ben Drew, president of the TripAdvisor-owned travel company Viator, said in December that the demand for upcoming travel is “extraordinary.”
“People want to make up for lost time,” he said, adding that potential customers have stated their desire to travel next year is greater than ever before.
“Indeed, the trends may be encouraging in some countries and cities, but the main messages we hear from governments and the media remain very cautious,” said Frederic Dimanche, director of the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Ryerson University in Toronto. “There will be pent-up demand for sure, but intentions to travel are still significantly down, the travel advisory remains, and the hospital capacity in Canada continues to be stretched.
“Unless significant changes are made to encourage people to feel safer, e.g., drop the PCR requirement upon arrival, which appears to be useless and a waste of money (see https://canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/testing-screening-contact-tracing/summary-data-travellers.html); increase personal testing capacity, and drop the international travel advisory, travel demand will continue to be limited to people who are more understanding of and accepting the risks.
“We all hope that Omicron will be tamped down, Dimanche said. “Signs are encouraging. But COVID-19 has already thrown a few surprises.”
