International airline traffic could surpass pre-COVID levels by 2024, a new study says.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is projecting that overall traveller numbers will hit 4 billion in 2024, which would put it at 103% of 2019’s total.
“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the omicron variant,” said IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh. “People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies.
“There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” Walsh said.
Here are some highlights from IATA’s latest report …
- In 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.
- In 2021, international traveller numbers were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.
Walsh said the forecast doesn’t take the Russian invasion of Ukraine into account. He said air transportation is generally able to withstand such events., but that higher jet fuel costs could be an issue.
IATA says the U.S. and Russian domestic markets have recovered, but that’s not the case for Canada, Japan, China and Australia, which just opened to international visitors eight days ago.
