I keep seeing stories with screaming headlines saying “Feds Won’t Intervene to Stop Air Canada Strike.”
I disagree.
If you look closely, that’s not what they’re saying. Here are some of Prime Minister Trudeau’s comments yesterday.
“I’m not going to put my thumb on the scale on either side. It is up to Air Canada and the pilots’ union to do the work to figure out how to make sure that they are not hurting millions of Canadians,” he told reporters in Quebec, according to a report from Reuters. “Every time there’s a strike, people say ‘Oh, you’ll get the government to come in and fix it’ – we’re not going to do that. We believe in collective bargaining, and we’re going to keep pushing people to do it.”
Okay, so he’s not going to intervene. End of story, Jim. But wait; here comes the important part.
“We are not going to interfere, we are not going to take action before it really becomes very clear that there is no goodwill at the negotiating table,” said Trudeau.
There you have it. They will not take action until it’s clear bargaining won’t work. But they are willing to act if it’s clear that there’s no goodwill.
According to Air Canada President and CEO Michael Rousseau, they’re close to that point already. He didn’t say there was a lack of goodwill, but he said they’re close to an impasse.
Here’s what Rousseau said in a statement on Thursday of this week: “”With talks nearing an impasse and time for negotiation running out, the travel plans of hundreds of thousands of Canadians are hanging in the balance.”
He also said this: “So, while we remain committed to reaching a negotiated settlement with ALPA, the federal government should be prepared to intervene if talks fail before any travel disruption starts.”
Travel disruption has already started. Some cargo flights have been cancelled, according to published reports. Air Canada said some long-haul flights might be cancelled before Sunday, Sept. 14, when both parties will be in position to declare that a job action is 72 hours away; either a management lockout or a pilot’s strike.
“We continue to meet with Air Canada today in an effort to reach a new contract at the negotiating table, and avoid legal job action and the effects of that on our passengers,” First Officer Charlene Hudy, Air Canada Master Executive Council Chair, Air Line Pilots Association, said in an email the union sent to me around 3 p.m. Eastern Time.
Air Canada on Monday of this week said it would have to begin an “orderly shutdown” of operations on Sunday if there’s no deal in place. They said today that no flights have been cancelled yet.
“At this time there is no further update on the ongoing talks, during which we have made significant offers without seeking concessions. Although our preparations for a possible suspension of operations continue, we have not yet cancelled any flights,” Air Canada said today. “But, as we said Friday, we have begun taking some measures, including limiting certain types of cargo shipments, such as perishables, and adjusting some aircraft flying schedules to have them positioned properly in event of a wind down.
“We are finalizing our plans, delaying the first cancellations as much as we can as we know that, once the wind down has started, we cannot avoid disruptions for several days even if a settlement occurs quickly.”
There’s no word of a deal at this point, so maybe we’re not quite at an impasse. Ten hours is a long time in bargaining. But we’re getting close to Sunday, and the ticking of the clock is growing louder. I’m typing this post around 2 p.m. on Saturday, which means the start of an operational shutdown is only 10 hours away, as is the possibility of a lockout or strike declaration, which can be made any time after 12:01 a.m. Sunday.
Aviation expert Karl Moore, who teaches at McGill University in Montreal, told CBC News he’d be surprised if there’s a settlement today or tonight.
“I think we’re going to see a strike happening. There might be a miracle and (they) reach an agreement later today, but I’d be genuinely surprised by that.”
Given what Trudeau has said, which is almost exactly the same as what Rousseau said in his remarks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Canadian government step in on the weekend, before things get too crazy. Maybe they don’t do anything today, but I believe the Liberals will intervene by Sunday night, or Monday morning.
Now, one of the key issues I haven’t seen addressed at length is HOW the Liberals could intervene, or whether they can do so unilaterally. Could the minority Trudeau government issue an order of some kind to force the two sides into arbitration or mediation without seeking approval from other political parties? It looks that way.
The Globe and Mail today said that last month, after a short strike, Teamsters rail workers at Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) were forced to comply with a ruling by the federal labour board ordering them back to work. The board’s decision came after federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon used Section 107 of the Canada Labour Code to direct the tribunal to begin arbitrating the dispute between the railways and Teamsters.
“If the government does end up using Section 107 to refer the dispute to the labour board, it would not need to worry about getting support from the other parties in Parliament for back-to-work legislation, said David Doorey, a professor of labour and employment law at York University’s Osgoode Hall Law School.
If that’s true, and I don’t doubt the expertise of Professor Doorey, then Trudeau would NOT need approval from the NDP or the Tories in Ottawa. Which means he’s pretty much free to order MacKinnon to use Section 107 of the Canada Labour Code to direct the Federal Labour Code to begin arbitration.
In a news release issued Friday Sept. 13, the pilot’s union asked the federal government to “respect workers’ collective bargaining rights and refrain from intervening in the bargaining process.”
The pilot’s union fears an arbitrator won’t give them the pay raise they’re looking for, and they’d love to avoid arbitration. It’s the opposite for Air Canada.
Now, we just have to see how things shape up, and when (in my opinion) the federal government jumps in. Do they wait for an actual strike or lockout to begin next Wednesday the 18th? I wouldn’t wait if I was Trudeau. If you’re going to get criticized for subverting negotiations, why wait for 2,000 flights to be cancelled and incur four days of bad PR from angry customers looking for flights? Assuming that either management issues a 72-hour lockout notice at 12:01 a.m. on Sunday or that the union issues a 72-hour strike notice at that time, why wouldn’t the government jump in right away?
Asked by the CBC what he thinks it would take for the PM to order an intervention, Moore replied, “Lots of complaints from a lot of people, so that he has broad support and would be seen as a popular move among many Canadians, I think is what it would be. So it would help the chances the Liberals get re-elected next year.”
Moore said he suspects an intervention order won’t take place until a strike is a week or even ten days old.
I don’t pretend to be an expert in Ottawa politics. But I did cover politics for the Toronto Star for 15 years, and I think I’m right when I read the quotes from Trudeau the way I do. I’m quite sure the Liberals will act to end the dispute. Moore thinks Trudeau will wait. I say he doesn’t. If it comes to an intervention, I wouldn’t be surprised if it came before a lockout or strike even begins. Worst case scenario to me would be next Friday, after nearly three full days of chaos.
But why wait?
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Much of your analysis is accurate except for the timing of Federal intervention. Rousseau’s statement has put Trudeau in the position of appearing to side with management if/when they intervene. Trudeau naturally doesn’t want to appear in that light. So early intervention is very unlikely.
AC management also has a history of favouring Tories so Liberals won’t feel like doing them any favours. Watch for the ex-AC Tory Duncan Dee to appear on TV pushing the AC cause.
Trudeau will only want to intervene when it appears public inconvenience and anger at both sides justifies over-riding the collective bargaining process. That likely means a strike of several days if one starts.
I hope I’m wrong but I think this will be a mess for at least a couple of weeks of wind down, strike and then start up.
That could be true. Good points. We’ll see, I guess. We both hope you’re wrong!