A new poll suggests Canadian travel to the U.S. could drop as much as 21% with Donald Trump as president.
Narrative Research asked Canadians what impact Trump’s election (he gets sworn into office for a second term on Monday) will have on personal travel to the United States within the next year. Nearly three in 10 Canadians surveyed (29%) said they expect to travel less, while eight per cent said they expect to travel more to the States. Just under one half (45%) said they expect to travel to the U.S. the same amount,
Narrative officials said the expected net drop in travel is approximately 21%.
That would be a huge blow to the U.S. economy if people followed through. Statista.com says 31% of all foreign visitors to the U.S. in 2023 were Canadian. Statistics Canada says Canadians spent $7 billion CAD in the U.S. in the first quarter of 2024 alone. If you spread that out over a full year, Canadian spending in the States could be $28 billion per year. A 21% drop in travel to the U.S. could, in theory, mean a loss of nearly $6 billion to the U.S. economy.
“A big number of people actually, three-in-10, told us they’re planning to travel (to the U.S.) less in the coming year,” Margaret Chapman, chief operating officer of Narrative Research, told CTV News. “I think it really starts to show how one change in power could actually really influence people’s behaviour.”
Frederic Dimanche, Professor/Director at the Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at Toronto Metropolitan University, said we heard similar comments when Trump was elected in 2016, but it didn’t lead to fewer Canadian trips to the States.
The U.S. Travel Association says that, after declining for three consecutive years, visitations from Canada to the United States grew by 6.3% in 2017 and by 4.8% in 2018. Those were years when Trump was in his first two years as president.
“Things may be a bit different this year because Trump has targeted Canada in a way that many found offensive or dangerous,” Dimanche said. “People may react negatively to a strong anti-Canadian economic policy with increased tariffs.”
The Narrative study found that nearly four-in-ten residents of Atlantic Canada (37%) said they expect to take less trips to the States with Trump in office. Thirty four per cent of Quebecers surveyed said that’s the case. For residents of British Columbia and the north of Canada the figure was 32%, while for Ontario it was 27%. For Alberta, 22% said they’re less likely to visit the U.S.
There’s also a significant age gap. Thirty seven per cent of Canadians over the age of 55 said they’re less likely to head stateside with Trump in office, compared to 24% of those aged 35-54, 27% of those aged 25 to 34, and 20% of those aged 18 to 24.
